My4Albany

The MLB Post-Season gets underway later today...so let's get right to the picks.

It's interesting that the two teams in each league that most people feel are the best two teams will be playing eacg other in the first round. And I believe that will give the winners of the other series a distinct advantage in the League Championship Series.

Cubs-Dodgers

The trendy pick here is LA...becuase of the Joe Torre / Manny factors. But "Sweet Lou" is no stranger to these spots...and the Cubbies have the best record in the NL for a reason. Chicago will win...but not before giving their long-sufferring fans a few tense moments.

Phillies-Brewers

This one looks too easy...which is scary...especially in baseball...where the unexpected happens on a regular basis in the post-season. However...the Phils are simply too strong to lose to a Brewers team that needed another Mets collapse just to get in. Philadelphia's experience from being in this same spot last season will pay huge dividends...while Milwaukee's 26 year absence from the playoffs will show.

Angels-Red Sox 

The other first-round marquee match-up. Experience could play a major role in this series as well. Both teams have it...it's just that the Angels is mostly bad...while the Sox have won it all two of the past three years. Not having a healthy Josh Beckett will hurt Boston tremendously...especially in a short series. I'll take the Angels...though a Sox win wouldn't shock me.

Rays-White Sox

This one is the toughest to handicap. Sure, you can simply say the Rays have had a great season and Chicago needed two extra games just to get in. But the Sox have to feel like their playing with house money. And...at some point...the reality of what Tampa Bay has done this season will begin to hit these players. The potential for the Rays to tighten-up in this spot...to me...is greater than the chance that the Sox will simply pack-it-in and go through the motions. In a shocking upset...I'll take the White Sox.

And if you think I'm a little senile for making that pick...remember...if Al Davis is still allowed to own an NFL franchise...anything is possible in sports.

The NFL has a problem. For those of us who don't play it's a GOOD problem. But for the league in general and for the men who strap on helmets each week it's a MAJOR problem.

Players have simply gotten too big, too fast, too strong, too quick, too fearless, too dangerous. Scary, potentially life-changing collisions used to be a rarity, a once or twice a season occurrance. Now they happen once or twice a game. Players laying motionless on the field, teammate and opponents kneeling nearby, thanking their lucky stars that it isn't them being attended to.

So far, the NFL is at a loss at for what to do to make the sport safer. Here's why: there's no answer. That horse has left the barn...and it stampeeding over everything in it's way. In the last 20 years football players have gone from being big guys and pretty good athletes to huge, chistled machines who can run a 40 in 4.5. The players are outgrown the sport.

And so it really should come as no surprise that violent, potenially deadly colissions are taking place on nearly every play in every NFL game each week. For years the league embraced this element of the game. Promos and highlights show were filled with the best hits. But...when players involved in those hits stopped getting up...the NFL decided to stop glorifying the violence and making "protecting players" a focus.

However...all the rules and fines and suspensions are not going to make NFL games less violent or NFL players any safer.

Pro football has reached the level of auto racing when it comes to safety. You can take all the measures you want...but the only way to eliminate the danger is to keep the participants in the garage. 

No nonsense time. Here we go:

Colts -3 @ Houston

Off their bye, the Colts of old emerge (at least for one week)

Ravens +3 vs. Titans

Ugly, low-scoring game. Tennessee due to lose. This is the spot.

Dolphins + 6 1/2 vs/ Chargers

Upset Special! Off their bye, the Dolphins will have plenty of tricks to play on the 32nd-ranked pass defense in the league. Miami wins the game outright (but take the points just in case).

Cardinals -1 vs. Bills

Perfect spot for Buffalo to finally taste defeat: on the road, vs. non-conference opponent, in a shoot-out game.

TAKE IT TO THE BANK - CASH COW OF THE WEEK

Eagles - 6 vs. Redskins

Any way you break this one down it screams Philly double-digit win. Here are just a few reasons: Eagles desperately need win; Washington coming-off HUGE , emotional win @ Dallas. Redskins defense banged-up. Weather expected to be good..which means a big day in store for McNabb. Eagles roll...don't worry about the points.

Enjoy the games (and enjoy the picks...if you know what I mean). You can thank me on Monday. 

So much for "The Team of the Century."

Wasn't this supposed to be the year the Chicago Cubs finally ended their World Series drought? You heard all the talk: 1908-2008....it was destiny that the Cubbies would get back to the Fall Classic and win it....especially in light of the great regular-season Lou Pinella's team put together.

Unfortunately...it turns-out that 2008 isn't much different than any of the previous 99. Oh, sure, the Cubs won a lot of games during the Spring and Summer. But when it counted in the fall...they disappeared quicker than that crowd at the neighborhood beach.

And now everyone is trying to figure out why? How could this have happened again? Well, here's the thing: the Cubs fell victim, again, to their own expectations. They were unable to rise to the occasion and over-come the pressure and distractions that come from 100 years of futility.

In other words...THEY CHOKED. "Choke" has always been seen as the untimate insult in sports. And in some ways it is. Because highly trained, and in the case of professional sports, highly paid athletes are not supposed to succumb to pressure. They are supposed to be machines, oblivious to the demands of the media, the fans, history.

But we know that's not the case. When you hear a coach or player say "I don't read the papers or listen to talk radio" you know that guy is the pouring over every word every day, and had a radio in every room.

Is that what happened to the Cubs? A big time choke job? Absolutely. You don't have every member of your infield make a error in the same game and not call that a choke job. But here's what would bother me even more if I were a Cubs fan: this was all pre-destined. You don't have a "priest" bless your dugout in an effort to erase some mythical "hex" before the first game of the playoffs. You don't, and players and coaches, even address the past. If you're the best team in the National League...which the Cubs apparently were, at least according to their regular-season record, then what happened the previous 99 years should be  irrelevant.

But, instead, the Cubs played right into the hands of the jinx, screwing with their own minds in the process, and CHOKED. Plain and Simple.

By the way, the Mets also CHOKED this year, allowing last season's historic collapse to effect the way the finished this year and permitting history to repeat itself. And there will be other teams who we'll see CHOKE this year. It happens. It's a fact of life and sports. The players and team who can keep the past in the past and play in the "now" are the one's who usually get it done in the clutch. One's that are controlled by their negative past normally relive it.

Why have the N.Y. Giants tollerated the antics of one Plaxico Burress all these years? If you believe the reports out of NY (and, frankly, when has anything untrue ever come out of the Gotham media) Buress has been fined by the team 40-50 times since he joined the club in 2005. Add to the mix the Domestic Abuse allegations and what you have is a pro athlete clearly out of control.

And, on the other side of the equation, we have Head Coach Tom Coughlin, a control FREAK. A hard ass. No nonsense. Takes nothing from nobody. At least that's what we're supposed to believe. And yet Coughlin, and the entire Giants organization, has been putting-up with crap from Burress so long it's coming out their ears.

And why? Because they needed him to win. And he helped them win. They looked the other way and it paid off. But it's funny how a Super Bowl championship can change one's perspective. All of a sudden Plaxico can't get away with his hijinx. All of a sudden the Giants have found a backbone. Now when Burress doesn't show-up for a meeting he gets fined ans suspended.

Nice. That's what we want from the leaders of our sports teams: consistancy. I'm not sure who's more to blame here - Burress for being a jerk or the Giants for allowing this guy to have his own way for all this time...just because he could catch a football.

But I do know this - both of them should be ashamed of themselves.

Maybe it's because My Team is in it for the first time in 15 years, but I think the Final Four in MLB this season provides the most intrigue and best storylines of any year I can remember.

In the American League you've got the defending champion Red Sox and the "worst to first", Cinderella Rays. In the National League you've got the Phillies, who are loaded with great, young players and haven't won a World Series since 1980 and the Dodgers, who are have Manny Ramirez...maybe the most polarizing player in the game today and Joe Torre, who brings the Yankees into the equation, even though they aren't playing.

Folks, this is about as good as it can get. Sure, some would say having the Cubs in there would have been exciting. But the Cubs story centers on LOSING. Instead the next week and a half will be all about WINNING. Great veteran players: Ortiz, Lowe, Moyer... Great young players: Longoria, Hamels, Lester. Former MVP's: Howard, Rollins, Manny. And each team is loaded with players that have the potential to stand up and be the MVP's of these series.

So here are my predictions:

Red Sox vs. Rays 

As well as Tampa Bay played all season, and as much as they are loaded with nice, young talent, they don't have the saavy or the experience to beat Boston in a 7-game series. The individual games shouldn't be blow-outs...but the series could end quickly. 

      Pick: RED SOX IN 5

Dodgers vs. Phillies 

This one has all the makings of a 7-game classic. Manny's presence in the middle of the Dodgers line-up has made everyone else more confident and dangerous. So what the Phillies need to do is make Ramirez a non-factor. And if that means walking/hitting him every time up...so be it. The key for the Phils is Chase Utley...who was ice cold in the NLDS. If the Phillies rely on the home run...they're done. And the LA staff does a nice job of keeping the ball in the park.

That being said...I see a lot of 9-7 games in this one...and the series going the distance.

        Pick: PHILLIES IN 7 

But remember: this is October baseball. The St. Louis Cardinals won it all a few years ago with, arguably, the worst line-up of any team to ever win a World Series. So a Rays-Dodgers finale is just as likely as any of the possible combinations.

As we await the start of the two MLB Championship Series, a huge weekend in football (both college and pro) and the start of the NHL season, some random thoughts:

- I don't care that the Cowboys aren't going to discipline "Pacman" Jones for his latest run-in with the law. It's the NFL's job to do that. Commish Roger Goddell talked tough about Jones when he allowed him back into the league. Now it's time for Goddell to back-up those words. Past experience tells us he won't.

- I paid $2.99 a gallon for gas in New Jersey this past weekend. Sweet.

- Could there be a worse time for the NBA and NHL seasons to begin? The first week of November would be much better for them and for us.

- With athletes blowing-out achillies on "Dancing with the Stars", how long until that show joins motorcycle riding and skiing on the "Banned Activity List."

- If the Phillies throw Manny Ramirez any pitch that isn't either up and in or in the dirt they deserve to lose.

- Best of luck to those of you playing in Fantasy NHL and NBA leagues. Say goobye to the wife and kids tonight. You can catch-up with them in June.

Finally we hit our stride last week, going 3-1-1, including nailing the Dolphins outright upset of the Chargers. "Ain't no stoppin' us now!" 

Week 6 is upon us. Get ready to get happy!

Jets -6 vs. Bengals 

Jets offense runs-it-up off the bye. Big game for Thomas Jones. Bengals fall to 0-2 in Meadowlands.

Rams + 13 1/2 @ Redskins

Can you say "Letdown." Off two huge, division wins 'Skins will be just flat enough to allow St. Louis to cover.

Cardinals + 5 vs. Dallas

Dallas has secondary problems. Cards strength is the passing game. Shoot-out should be a 3-pt game either way. I'll take 5.

Patriots + 5 @ San Diego

Must win for Chargers? They'll be sky-high for Pats in Prime Time? Forget it. Patriots hate S.D. and will find a way to win the game outright. Take the 5 just in case, but we shouldn't need them.

Giants - 8  @ Cleveland

Can't imagine why this number is so low. Yes, Jints are due for a letdown, but it shouldn't be in this spot on MNF. The Brown are averging less than 12 pts. per game. If the Giants don't win by double-digits I'll be shocked.

Enjoy this great football weekend, everybody. (Oh, by the way, a Texas/LSU parlay will get your weekend off to a great start) 

There have been a lot of amazing things happen in the NFL this season, as they do most seasons. But to see a team lose a game after taking the lead on a touchdown with :11 to go in the game? That's the topper. And there's plenty of blame to go around for how the Chicago Bears were able to accomplish such an incredible feat. But there's one main culprit...and it's the SQUIB KICK..

Much like you can't legislate morality, you can't make rules to eliminate stupidity in coaching. But if you could...the first thing I'd look to ban is the squib kick. Of course this would rob us of the amusement we get each season when coaches use this kick-off technique..only to have it blow-up in their faces. This was never lllustrated better than at the end of the Bears-Falcons game...when...with :11 secconds to go and a one point lead...a Bears squib gave Atlanta with ball on their own 45. One quick completion and a long field goal...and the Falcons pulled-out the win and handed the Bears a crushing loss.

Why the squib kick? What's to be gained? Sure the Falcons had a long kick-off return earlier in the game...but that's no reason to hand a team great field position in the worst possible time. After the game Bears Coach Lovie Smith said the reason he squibbed is that his kick-off coverage team was "tired."

Are you kidding me? That's an embarrassing thing for Smith to say...and...if true...even MORE embarrassing. I've been saying for years that Lovie Smith was in over his head as an NFL head coach...and this is just another example of why I'm right. And this isn't a case where "you're damned if you do...and damned if you don't." No one would have criticized Smith if he had kicked deep and had the ball returned fof a game-winning TD. Rip the special teams coach maybe, but not the decision to kick deep.

In a year of bad losses this one goes right to the top of the list.

If you didn't see this coming then you simply haven't been paying attention. In fact, if you are an HBO subscriber, you got a preview of this throughout the month of August. The Dallas Cowboys are a mess.

Sure the Cowboys have a ton of talented players. They've had a ton of talented players the past several years. But yet they don't have what it takes to win. Regular-season games? Sure. 13-3 last year Sept-Dec.? Beautiful. But this team can't get it done when it really matters.

And here's why? They have a fatal leadership mix: An owner who's too strong and a head coach who isn't strong enough. Teams can win with a maniacal, ego-obsessed owner such as Jerry Jones IF there's a coach in place who can deflect a lot of that ownership meddling and keep the players focussed and prepared. But Wade Phillips isn't that guy. Phillips is incompetant, giving Jones even more power with the reigns of this team.

However, you can't let the players off the hook here, either. Many of the them, including QB Tony Romo, are overrated. If Romo was playing in Carolina he'd be...Jake Delhomme. But there's a bigger problem when it comes to the Cowboy's roster and it's this: every player who wears that star on his helmet thinks he's better than he really is. And that goes for the coaching staff as well. It's the Dallas Cowboys ego that is this organization's fatal flaw. They are the NY Yankees of the NFL. The Yankees of the past half-dozen years. All this talent and the attitude to go with it. And the hype and the headlines and the constant spotlight.

But the similiarity is the greatest when it comes to being able to win in the big spot. Yankees haven't been able to do it. And the Cowboys haven't been able to do it. And now, with the loss of Romo for a month with a broken pinky, the "Pacman" Jones issue and pending suspension,  T.O. ready to blow-up, the rash of injuries, rumors about Phillips being on the hot seat, fan and media pressue in Dallas, this is a powder keg ready to blow.

This is great news for the Giants, Eagles and Redskins and the rest of the NFC. Much like the Yankees are sitting home this October while their division rivals from Boston and Tampa are still playing...the Cowboys could suffer a similar fate come January. 

Even I'm surprised that the Phillies were able to polish-off the Mannys (afterall...he was a one-man team) in 5 games. Especially since the Phils didn't have any one player, offensively, have a good series. I guess that's the sign of a great team: everyone contributing and a different hero or group of heroes each day.

Of course Hamels was tremendous, but it's going to take runs to beat the Rays. Look for the Phillies to come-out swinging in the series. And the DH will help them in the games in Tampa.

The immaturity of Tony Romo as an NFL player is coming to the surface this week with his succumbing to the pressure from Brett Favre to playing with a broken pinkie on his throwing hand. Only after Favre's meddling did Romo step-up and tell the team that he could still play. That's not the kind of backbone you want from your quarterback. Romo knows his body better than anyone and he shouldn't be shamed into playing by Favre...or anyone.

Is there anything more meaningless than and NBA exhibition game? Maybe a WNBA exhibition game, but I'm not sure they play those.

Andy Pettitte wants to pitch for the Yankees again next season. The team would be crazy to bring him back. Moving into a news stadium and coming-off their worst season in nearly a decade and a half, the Yankees need to inject some new life into this franchise...and having a guy like Pettitte back to clog-up the rotation is not the way to do that.  

A 3-2 week last week (who knew that Eli's evil twin was hanging-out in Cleveland) means were 6-3-1 over out last two. Time to improve on 65% winners (which is still pretty damn good).

I was going to do the Sun. Nighter (Seattle @ Tampa), but if John Madden doesn't care out this game, why should we? 

Here we go with Week 7 selection:

Dolphins -3

Miami gets to .500 with a win. Yes, they're playing the Ravens and their #1 defense. But Baltimore also has one of the league's worst offenses. The Dolphins will create a few turnovers and short fields for Chad and the Wildcats and win AND COVER in a low-scoring affair.
 

Texans -9

Houston finally got it's first win last week and their home again in this one so they'll be sky-high. The Lions, on the other hand, have already begun looking ahead to next season, and all the draft picks they got for Roy Williams. This is a big number for a team with only one win. Not to worry. Texans win 2nd straight...this time by double digits.

Rams +7

The bad reality show that is the Dallas Cowboys is a road favorite this week? Not warrented. Dallas has too many distractions ("Pacman", coaching change rumors, TO drama) and too many real football issues (Romo pinkie, Felix Jones out, new punter) to be favored by 7 over anybody, even the Rams. 

Raiders +3

This is one of those games where the line just doesn't make sense. The Jets...on the surface...should be a 6-6 1/2 pt. favorite here, even with the game being played in Oakland. Rule of thumb when I see an "out of wack" line: go against the obvious. This very well could be the coming-out game for Jamarcus Russell against that questionable Jets defense. If Oakland scores first they win the game outright. Either way I'll take the Silver and Black and the 3.

Bills - Pick

Huge game for the Bills. There's a world of difference between "5-1" and "4-2". Good news: the Chargers travel back east...again...and then they travel to London next week. Great chance they may be looking ahead. Plus, San Diego secondary is very vulnerable...and L.T.'s not 100% yet.  Look for Trent Edwards and Lee Evans to hook-up for a few big plays and Bills to win this one.

Get to the pumpkin patches, haunted houses and corn mazes on Saturday...so you can get kick-back and watch the games on Sunday. Especially since next week: the leaf-raking begins.

Preparing for and then watching last night's Game 7 of the ALCS put me in a bit of a quandry. As a fan of the Philadelphia Phillies I had to decide which team - the Red Sox or the Rays - would I rather the Phils play in the World Series. And it was not an easy choice.

Thursday night...when the Rays had a 7-0, Game-5 lead and we about to dispatch of the Sox in incredible fashion...I was worried about the Phils having to face a team on such an incredible role, a young, talented team that appeared to be impervious to the pressure of where they were and what they were about to do. But then came the collapse, which resulted in there having a be a game 7. The Rays showed not only were they human, but that they had several flaws that could be exposed.

As for the Red Sox, they are the MLB version of Dracula. I wasn't sure if I was watching the ALCS or "True Blood." And, even without Manny (who the Phils were able to overcome in the NLCS), there are enough saavy veterans and quality youngsters on this team (not to mention a great manager) to make a potential Fall Classic showdown with them one to fear. However, with Big Papi and Jason Varitek all but automatic outs, Josh Beckett NOT the Josh Beckett of last year, and a lot of kids who've never felt the pressure of post-season play, the Sox, many times during that series, clearly looked like they were running on fumes...and a nice potential opponent in the Series.

So, what was a Phillies fan to do? I batted this one back-and-forth all day...finally settling on Tampa as being the best match-up for the Phils. I came down to a few things: the inexperince of Tampa, the shaky bullpen of Tampa, the lack of an intimidation factor playing at Tropicana Field (plus I like the Phils playing indoors and Tampa having to play in Northeast cold, something the Sox are used to.).

And I just believe that, eventually, we going to see this very young Rays team succumb to the reality of this "worst to first", and bite the apple. We got a taste of this in Games 5 and 6 against the Sox. I'll be shocked if we don't see it again later this week.

And I like the fact that they won't be able to set their rotation and a hang-over from the ALCS victory effecting Wednesday's Game-1.  Of course these things would have effected Boston as well, but I'm guessing the Sox would have handled it a little better.

But we'll see.  So all in all, I'm pretty happy this morning and I think most other Phillies fans should be as well. Sure, it would have been nice to meet and defeat the defending champs, but when you haven't won a World Series in 28 years, it really doesn't matter who you knock-off to get that championship, as long as you get it. 

What am I missing here? Brett Favre is spending more time on the telephone this season than game-planning for opponents. Whether it be calling the Lions (and, yes, I do believe the reports that HE called Lions, not the other way around) to give them tips on how to beat the Pakers or calling Tony Romo to shame him into trying to play with a broken pinkie, Favre can't resist letting his fingers do the walking.

And, yet, here's a guy who played...what 5-good quarters of football all season long? If I were the Jets I would seriously considering taking Favre's phone privileges away.

And what about ESPN coverage of this story. We've always know that they have had a love affair with Brett, but they way they've handle this story has been downright embarrassing.

First of all they were scooped on the story by Jay Glazer of Fox. And that happens on a regular basis throughout the year. So combine that, with ESPN's not wanting to make Favre look bad (thing they've got plans to hire him on when he retires?) and the network decided to ignore the story for 3-days. Only today, after Favre spoke and semi-admitted/semi-denied the Glazer report, did ESPN puff-out it's chest and run with the story. And, of course, they're taking everything Favre is saying as fact, even though this guy LIED to Peter King of SI earlier this week when he denied that he spoke with the Lions at all.

When is the world going to open their eyes to the shame that is Brett Favre? I give him credit for planning for as long as he has. But other than that, Favre's career...and this god-like persona...is a media-creation...a fabrication.

Brett Favre through clear, unbiased eyes: Incredibly durable. Won 1 Super Bowl. Has thrown more big interceptions than big touchdowns. Put himself ahead of his teammates and the organization that made him a star fo several years. And this week we've learned he both Vindictive and dishonest.

Oh, and he's a good 'ol boy who likes to wear jeans and hunt. And at this time next year he'll be working for ESPN. 

...not with a bang...OR a wimper. But with a staph infection.

Item: Cleveland TE Kellen Winslow becomes the 6th Browns player to contract a staph infection at the team's facility. The Browns are so feaful of the epidemic that they try to keep Winslow from telling the media why he had to be hospitalized for 4-days, and then suspend him when he does speak out.

Item: Patriots QB Tom Brady undegoes multiple operations as doctors try to stop the spread of an infection that he contracted during knee surgery. Brady may need new ACL surgery because of this and could miss, not only the entire 2009 season, but the 2010 season as well.

These are just the latest examples of how infections are effecting the sports world. And there are dozens more...less profile cases. And there will a lot more...high profile cases. Look at it this way: if Tom Brady can't have a "clean" surgery...who can?

Frankly, we're all at risk. Anyone who has undergone an operation lately know the fear of infection now outweighs the fear of the surgical proceedure. And it will only get worse...and medical science can manufacture antibiotics that are strong enough to fight-off the new, powerful strains of staph and other infections that are taking-over.

Sounds like Science Fiction? It's not. Sounds scary? It is. You best way to avoid becomming a victim of this growing trend? Stay off the operating table...at all cost. What we once thought of as minor surgical proceedures now carry the risk of tremendous danger. The problem with athletes is, unfortunately, they're always getting injured and, therefore, are going under the knife.

But...if there once was a thing called a "safe and routine" surgery, that not longer exists. Mark my words: there will be more and more big name college and professional athletes whose career will come to and end...prematurely...due...not to injury, but infection. This will become one of the sports world's (and society's) MAJOR stories of the next 5 years.

I've never wanted to be so wrong about a prediction in my life...but I'm afraid I've nailed this one.

Again, think about it: If Tom Brady can't have a clean surgery how can any of us be safe? 

Another 3-2 week last week...including nailing the Raiders upset of the Jets. But I'm getting tired of 60% winners (which most players in Vegas would kill for). We want more...as...I'm sure...do you. So here we go for week 8:

Redskins - 8

Yes, the Lions are going to jump-up a beat somebody one of these weeks. But it's not going to be here. The 'Skins are due for a break-out offensive game. Clinton Portis may be the NFL's first-half MVP and he should be able to run all over a Detroit defense that's given-up the second-m ost points in the league.

 Ravens -7

Just becuase the Raiders got a win last week, a win that was gift-wrapped by the Jets, doesn't mean they should only be a TD underdog...on the road...to the Ravens, whose defense is one of the best in the league. Plus, with rookie Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense coming to life a bit...this game looks almost too good to be true. Usually I run the other way in such cases...but I can't resist myself here.

Bucs +4 

 The Cowboys still have loads of problems...and a new one...with Wade Phillips now running the defense. Tampa is a better team than the Rams squad that pummelled Dallas last week. And I'm getting 4-points? I likee!

Upset Special

Dolphins + 1 1/2

Something smells funny here, and it's not the Fish or the Tuna. Why are the "5-1" Bills only slim favorites against the "2-4" Dolphins. Home field? That's not it. Talent? Try again. In fact...this is one of those games where you don't even look at match-ups. Just go with your gut.

TAKE IT TO THE BANK - LOCK OF THE WEEK 

Giants +3

This is one of those games that...when it's over...it'll look easy (don't they all). I'm going on the assumption that the Giants have to play with more focus and urgency than in their last two games...especially on defense. The key will be getting pressure on Big Ben...who's been under seige all season. A few key turnovers...resulting in short drives...will allow the Giants to stay close. This could be a 1 or 2 point game...which is why we're taking "3".

As for the World Series: it will be a Phillies weekend...and they may actually be in position to close it out on Monday night.

Enjoy your weekend. Mow that lawn one more time so that it'll be easier to rake the leaves. Get those last minute Halloween decorations up...and watch a lot of football.

I know I normally don't talk about the previous week's NFL picks before Friday, but sometimes you can't delay greatness. 3-0-2 on Sunday. After a so-so start we are 9-3-3 over the last 3-weeks. Nice.

Plus, as long as my hand is already around back patting away...I've never been so right about a World Series prediction in my life. This things has played out exactly as I thought - in particular the part about the Rays being both emotional spent and mentally overwhelmed. Evan (Eva) Longoria, Carlos Pena and the rest of the kiddie core from Tampa look like Little Leaguers.

Meantime...the sleeping giant that is the Phillies Offense has come alive. You didn't think they be scoring 2-3 runs a game all series...did you?

Yes...there's still some unfinished business to do...but I'll shocked if Hamels doesn't pitch another gen tonight and the Phils don't score early and often off of Scott Kazmir.

These Rays may have their day...someday...as long as ownership spends some money to keep this young nucleus together (otherwise they'll simply be helping other teams to win pennants). But this year belongs to the Phillies.

By the way, we've been averaging about two major blown calls by the umpires per game in this series. Look for the topic of EXPANDED instant replay to be discussed during the off-season.

Forget about everything else he had on his agenda today. Bud Selig should simply go to the nearest convienent store in Philly and buy whichever lottery tticket has the greatest payout. Scratch-off or numbers it doesn't matter because Bud will be winner. It's a lock. And you know why? Because this guy is the luckiest man on the face of the Earth.

Sure, some will tell you that the MLB Commissioner has had some bad luck in recent years, most of it brought-on by his own boneheaded decisions. But all of that changed last night. Bud is now "Mr. Lucky." When the Tampa Bay Rays score a run in the top of the 6th last night, tying Game 5 of the World Series with the Phillies @ 2, Bud went from sad-sack, laughing stock, worst commissioner in the history of pro sports...to Mr. Lucky.

You see that run allowed Selig to put his plan in motion to suspend the game at that point due to the incredibly bad playing conditions. By suspending the game with the score tied 2-2 in the 6th inning there was no controversy. Yes it was a complete game (after 5 innings), but, of course, there's no winner because the game is tied.

However, had Carlos Pena not delivered his 2-out single to tie the game at 2...Selig would have had a very difficult decision to make: can I suspended the game...and official game...with the Phillies leading 2-1...knowing that the game could not be completed that night...and NOT declare the Phillies World Champions.

Now, Selig said after last night's suspension that there was an agreement in place PRIOR to the game, that officials from both teams knew about,  that the game would be played to it's conclusion...9-innings...27-outs...no matter what happened weather-wise. And that's nice to say AFTER THE FACT. Truth is...we have no idea if that was the case...or if BUD just came-up with that on the fly...as the rain was getting harder and the pressure on Selig to avoid another major black eye for baseball was growing stronger.

Do I think World Series games should be played in their entirety? Probably. Bu there are always extenuating circumstances. And some will argue...if a game in mid-May can produce a winner after 4 1/2 innings (with the home team ahead), why not in late October.

And this is why Selig is so lucky. If the Phillies had been leading when that game was called...there would have be THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS of fans and media members clamoring for that game to be declared "official" and the Phillies as World Champions. Hey, that organization and that city have been waiting 25 years to win another World Series. Would this have been the ideal way they'd want to have it happen? No. But rules are rules...and the controversy surround what would have been an "open-ended rain delay" would have been HUGE.

As it is...Selig is getting heat for the way he handled the situation. Why was the game called in the middle of the 6th and not after 5? Why weren't  the media and the fans notified of this new "policy" prior to the game? Once again Bud's got mud on his face.

But that's the last thing he should be worried about today. In fact he shouldn't be worried about anything. Bud got bailed-out by a 2-out single through the driving rain and howling win. His heart must have nearly jumped out of his chest when Upton scored that tying run. It probably took everything he had not to call the game right there and drag the tarp on the field himself. Because what would have happened if the Rays scored another run in that inning...and led 3-2 after 5 1/2?  Do you think the game would have been suspended at that point? I have my doubts.

 But none of that matters because Bud got his tie, the most famous tie in the history of baseball. And one of the luckiest incidents in the history of sports.

Bud, take the day off. You deserve it. And you know what - Atlantic City's only an hour away.

Thanks for all the calls and e-mails, congratulating me for the Phils World Series victory...as well as my accurate prediction. Obviously the first of those two events has been rare, but in recent years the second has been as well.

This Phillies win will be remembered as a complete team effort...especially in the wake of the lead-off double by Pat Burrell in the bottom of the 7th that turned-out to be the Series winning run. Up until that point Burrell was O-for-the Series. That hit alone has made Burrell a folk hero among Philadelphia sports fans for the rest of time. And he'll have a lot of company.

Where does this team stack among recent W.S. champions? Well, they've got the last two N.L. MVP's (Rollins, Howard), one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball (Hamel), the best closer in the game this season (LIdge), All-Star 2nd baseman (Utley), the best pinch-hitter in baseball in '08 (Dobbs), the best bullpen, and a bunch of solid role players. 

I'm not a big stats/numbers cruncher (I leave that to the Elias Sports Bureau folks), but the eye-ball test, the smell test, tells me that this team stacks-up nicely against any baseball champs in recent history. They won 25 of their last 30 games...including 10-3 in the post-season and 7-0 at home. Those are #'s you can't dispute.

As for last night's mini-game...it was great...and maybe baseball sholuld seriously consider staging a few more of those. There was suspense, drama, timely hitting, great defense, clutch pitching and questionable strategy. Everything you want from a 9-inning baseball game...but hardly ever get. And it was over by 10:00...allowing a lot of people...especially kids...to stay-up and watch.

Think about it: Everything that people say is bad about post-season baseball was "good" last night.  And the TV ratings, as I predicted, were through the roof. That...more than anything...will get MLB's attention.

Will we see more Mini-Games in baseball's future? Well, you can never say never as long as a goof-ball like Bud Selig is calling the shots. And...since we all know that TV and money control every decision made by every professional sports league, don't count it out.

But...like with most things...the first time will always be the best. 

Last week...5 games...not a loser in the bunch as we went 3-0-2...including winners in our Upset Special and Lock of the Week. And yet, I'm disappointed by those two "pushes." Perfection is the goal each week. Hey, if my guy Brad Lidge can reach perfection, why not me?

And so...with one eye on the Phillies Championship Parade...here we go:

Packers + 5 1/2 

Titans coming-off emotional MNF win over arch-rival Indy. Tennesse has their division all but wrapped-up already. Pack coming-off a bye, well-rested and focussed. And they need this one.

Bucs - 8 1/2

Chiefs are responsible for more long runs than bad mayo. Tampa's angry for giving one away last week to Dallas, and that their baseball buddies got embarrassed in the WS.

Bills - 5 1/2

We saw last week's Bills stumble coming from a mile away. But this team is too good to lose to an inferior AFC East team two weeks in a row. Trent Edwards, right now, is a much better QB than Brett Favre. That's good enough for me.

Giants - 8 1/2

Until the Cowboys get a little healthier (which should happen) and start to live-up to the expectations (which may NEVER happen) I'm going to continue to go the other way. Giants pass rush should pound on Brad Johnson all day, creating turnovers and short fields for the offense. G-Men win by double-digits.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Eagles - 6 1/2

The number being so low scares me a little...but not enough to stay away. With Westbrook back the Eagles are a top-5 team in the entire league. Seattle's a mess, with Seneca Wallace at QB this week it can only get worse. Add in the pressure on the Eagles to follow suit with what the Phils did this season...and it all equals Blow-Out! 

In the spirit of Halloween we're giving more than receiving this week. Not to worry. All Treats, no Tricks.

Enjoy the games..and your last weekend making some $$$ before the pending doom of national socialism takes shape.